Karela Fry

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State election results 2012

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Across states there was a vote against inflation and local issues.

Uttar Pradesh

DNA reports:

The Star News-AC Neilson exit poll said SP [Mulayam Singh’s Samajwadi Party] would get 183 seats, followed by BSP [Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party] with 83 seats, BJP 71 and Congress at fourth with 51 seats. Headlines Today polls showed SP getting between 195 and 210 seats followed by BSP with 88-98 seats, BJP with 50-56 seats and Cong-RLD combine with 38-42.

Similarly, India TV-C-Voter exit poll showed SP winning 137-145 seats followed by BSP with 122-130 seats, and News24 and Today’s Chanakya poll claiming SP would win 185 seats.

Another poll by CNN-IBN-The Week-CSDS had even gone over board by projecting SP bagging 232 to 250 seats in the 403-member Assembly.

However, results show that SP won over 220 seats and BSP around 80.

The CNN-IBN-The Week-CSDS poll predicted a +9% swing for the SP, -6% for the BSP, -3% for the BJP and -1% for the Congress+RLD. No margins of error were reported. A swing is the vote share in this election over that in the 2007 election. Z News reports that the actual swing for SP was +6%, most of it coming from a -4% for the BSP. There was a -2% swing for the BJP with the Congress picking up +2% and other parties together giving another -2% swing. It could be that the BJP and Congress are stuck with an older model for the electorate, whereas the BJP and BSP have created a new and larger electoral pool for themselves.


IBN Live reports:

Despite attaining absolute majority in Punjab, the Shiromani Akali Dal and its ally BJP lost its vote share in comparison to Congress which failed to leave up to its expectations in the poll results of the 117 member Assembly.

The father-son duo of Parkash Singh Badal and Sukhbir Singh Badal succeeded in convincing the Punjab electorate to give 56 seats to the SAD, but they failed to raise the party’s vote share as compared to its tally in 2007 polls.

While the SAD’s vote share in this elections declined to 34.75 per cent as compared to 37.09 per cent in 2007, its ally BJP’s vote share also came down to 7.13 per cent this time as against 8.28 per cent in the previous hustings.

Left parties CPI and CPM, however, seems to be disappearing from the political scene as the vote share of both the parties fell drastically this time as compared to 2007 polls.

While CPI fell from 3.31 per cent to 0.82 per cent, the CPM dropped from 2.25 per cent in 2007 to 0.16 per cent in 2012 polls. The vote percentage of CPI and CPM fell by 2.49 per cent and 2.09 per cent, respectively.

In the present House, the number of Independents came down from six to three but their vote share of 417 Independents in fray this time increased by 0.06 per cent from 6.82 in 2007 to 6.76 per cent this year.

Z News reported a downswing for both major parties: -1% for the Congress and -3% for the incumbent SAD (Shiromani Akali Dal). The swing votes went to smaller parties.


ET reported on the see-saw battle in Uttarakhand:

Congress tonight appeared on course to form government in Uttarakhand after it took a wafer-thin one seat advantage over ruling BJP in a cliff-hanger of a contest in state assembly polls.

Out of all the 70 results, Congress won 32 seats–four short of majority in the 70-member House–and ruling BJP followed closely with 31 seats.

Congress sources said the party would seek the support from three successful independent candidates as well as UKD, which won one seat, for government-making.

BSP won three seats and could also hold the to government formation in the state.

As Congress emerged as the single largest party, a delegation of the party called on Governor Margaret Alva late this evening and staked claim to form new government.

The reason for the close race is in vote swings. Z News reported that there were massive swings for the two major parties: +3% for the Congress and a stupendous +9% for the BJP.


The Hindu reported on Goa:

Cashing-in on the anti-incumbency factor in a big way, the Bharatiya Janata Party-Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party combine on Tuesday rode to power in Goa, ousting the Congress and securing a majority in a House of 40 members, nearly half of whom will be new faces.

While the BJP won in 21 constituencies, seven more than last time, the MGP raised its tally from two in the last polls to three seats in the March 3 Assembly election results for which were declared on Tuesday.

The Congress, which had 16 seats last time, was reduced to nine seats with many of its stalwarts, including several Ministers and Goa Pradesh Congress Committee president Subhas Shirodkar, biting the dust. Its ally the Nationalist Congress Party, which had three seats last time, was wiped out.

So pronounced was the wind of change, that 19 new faces were elected this time.

Goa is the BJP’s new heartland. Z News reports an astounding +8% swing for the BJP and +1% for the left at the expense of -2% for the Congress and another -7% for other parties.


In spite of the huge voter turn out, Manipur was the dark horse, reports IE:

It was an unexpected victory for the Congress in the 10th assembly election in Manipur. Till last night, Congress insiders had speculated that they would bag 25-27 seats. But today’s result in the state has defied even the most optimistic Congressman’s expectations. With no less than a landslide victory with a two third majority and 42 out of 60 assembly constituencies under its belt, the Congress is all set to begin its third term as the ruling party in Manipur.

And the Congress was fighting against major odds in these elections. Ahead of the elections came a dictat by seven underground groups operating in the valley areas which had banned the Congress party from the elections.

The main change in Manipur according to Z News is that the politics of this eastern state is coming closer to the national average, with a swing of +8% for the Congress and +6% for the BJP at the expense of -7% for the MPP and another -7% for the others.


Written by Arhopala Bazaloides

March 6, 2012 at 4:35 pm

2 Responses

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  1. […] answer is clear from the state elections in March this year. There was a 6% vote swing towards the SP in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP, on the other hand lost 2% of […]

    Why so mulayam? « Karela Fry

    September 22, 2012 at 5:43 pm

  2. […] is a critical state in the Lok Sabha, because of the number of seats it has. In the last state election in UP there was a +6% swing in favour of the SP, -4% against the BSP -2% against the BJP, and +2% for the […]

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